Looming Soviet Stock Shortage Could Hamper Russia's Offensive: Report

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-soviet-union-stockpiles-tanks-armored-vehicles-artillery-ukraine-1926869

Russia's once-extensive Soviet-era stockpile, which has propped up its war effort in Ukraine, is dwindling, and could affect Moscow's ability to continue advancing in the east of the country, according to a new report.

The Kremlin has relied heavily on Soviet reserves of tanks, armored vehicles and weapons to push forward with its offensives across the hundreds of miles of front lines in Ukraine.

Slews of more advanced equipment, like newer main battle tanks, were destroyed, damaged or captured in the initial phases of the war after Moscow launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022. Russia has hiked its defense spending to expand tank and vehicle production, and turned to thousands of mothballed vehicles in storage to fill the gaps.

Reserves of tanks and armored vehicles are key for fighting the battles going on in eastern and northeastern Ukraine, as are supplies of artillery systems.

But experts told The Economist in an article published on Tuesday that by mid to late 2025, Russia's ability to use vehicles that have long sat in storage will have reached a "critical point of exhaustion." Many of Russia's T-72 tanks have reportedly been exposed to the elements since the fall of the Soviet Union in late December 1991, and have likely suffered for it.

Russian forces may have to fight a more defensive battle in Ukraine by the end of the year, Michael Gjerstad, an analyst with the U.K.-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) think tank, told the outlet.

Newsweek has reached out to the Russian Defense Ministry for comment via email.

The IISS think tank said in February 2024 that Russia has been able to replenish its extensive tank and vehicle losses in Ukraine, but much of the hardware heading for the front lines are "not new." Moscow is often sacrificing quality for quantity, the think tank added.

According to Ukraine's count, Russia has lost well over 8,000 tanks. This estimate comes in higher than many Western intelligence figures, which typically sit at under roughly half of this tally. Dutch open-source intelligence outlet, Oryx, has visually verified 3,243 Russian tank losses, but stresses the true number is likely to be higher.

The IISS estimated in February that Russia had lost at least 3,000 tanks, adding at the time: "To put that in perspective, Russia's battlefield tank losses are greater than the number it had when it launched its offensive in 2022."

Moscow is also contending with having to replace the barrels of artillery systems like howitzers that are in constant use, according to Tuesday's report. The barrels in artillery pieces littered along the hotspots of fighting need replacing as frequently as every few months, the outlet said, with Russia taking barrels from old, towed artillery pieces to fix onto self-propelled howitzers for the battlefield.

Ukraine has lost a significant number of its own vehicles and artillery pieces, although it is hard to discern the extend of the losses. According to Russia's figures, Kyiv has lost a collective total of over 16,602 tanks and armored vehicles and more than 12,000 artillery pieces. Oryx puts the tank and armored vehicle losses at just shy of 3,500.