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| https://www.newsweek.com/russia-war-putin-sanctions-2047151 |
U.S. President Donald Trump's pursuit of a better relationship with Moscow must not include easing sanctions on Russia that impact Vladimir Putin's ability to wage war, a Ukrainian think tank has told Newsweek.
After a phone call with Trump on Tuesday, Russian President Putin agreed to a limited ceasefire in Ukraine but pushed back on plans for an immediate 30-day truce.
Further talks are scheduled between officials from Moscow and Washington on Sunday but whatever negotiations occur, the U.S.-led measures that have complicated Putin's ability to fund and equip its war machine should not cease, according to the Kyiv School of Economics think tank, the KSE Institute.
Analysis by the think tank outlines how despite Putin's record spending, Russia's military industrial complex (MIC) is still beset by labor and component shortages, a collapse in arms exports and difficulties in modernizing.
"This is the exact wrong time to take the foot off the gas," Benjamin Hilgenstock, KSE senior economist and one of the report's coauthors, told Newsweek.
Newsweek has contacted the State Department for comment.
Why It Matters
Russia has proposed closer economic cooperation with America, including a joint effort to exploit rare earth minerals, which is a priority for Trump in the face of China's dominance in the sector.
Reuters reported this month that the White House had asked the Treasury Department to explore easing energy sanctions ahead of the leaders' phone call, which would be a reversal of the policy of former President Joe Biden, whose administration tried to choke off funds for Russian aggression.
But the KSE says that easing up on sanctions that have hurt the MIC could allow a rejuvenation of Putin's war machine, posing an even greater security risk.
What To Know
Precise figures of Russia's defense budget are tricky to pin down but spending on its military has soared to the highest levels since the Cold War.
In 2022, the first year of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it reached $86.4 billion—a 31 percent increase from the previous year. It then ballooned to $109.5 billion in 2023 and hit $112 billion in 2024, according to Ukrainian estimates.
While Russia's military spending is projected to soar this year to $142 billion, or nearly one third (32.5 percent) of government outlays, the KSE has said this war economy only tells part of the story of Russia's ability to arm itself.
The think tank found that Russia's military faces significant challenges, including escalating funding costs, labor shortages, collapsing arms exports and sanctions.
While Russia has made strides in some areas, it struggles with the rapid pace of innovation required to maintain a competitive edge in modern warfare.
Hilgenstock said talks with Russia should take into account that sanctions and pressure on its MIC have worked, and it was the wrong time to ease them without any good reason. This poses a long-term challenge for the West to maintain such pressure.
Russia has faced huge losses of equipment, which it tried to offset with restoring stockpiled equipment, such as tanks, and Moscow has relied on cooperation with North Korea and Iran to overcome shortages in artillery shells, for example.
With direct supplies from Western countries drying up, China has become a lifeline for Russia, thanks to its imports of intermediate components, particularly high-tech electronics and industrial tools—many of which fall under export controls.
Putin is looking for sanctions relief from the U.S., but the KSE report says these measures should not cease because they have deteriorated macroeconomic conditions, caused acute labor shortages and disrupted supply chains for critical inputs.
KSE report co-author Pavlo Shkurenko said that North Korea supplies directly military products in terms of shells for their arterial and the artillery pieces, which show that the Russian military industry alone cannot satisfy its battlefield demands.
China is not directly supplying finished military products, but has given components such as electronics, radio and comms optics, he said.
Russia is also not able to produce large quantities of new advanced main battle tanks and the production of new equipment is limited.
This is why the focus should be not to devise new sanctions but to ensure the enforcement of existing ones and that the threat of secondary sanctions in the Chinese financial system has worked.
He said there was no U.S. self-interest in lifting sanctions on Russian military and that the military enterprises that would benefit from such a move would be ones that produce weapons that could one day pose a risk to the U.S. and Europe.
What People Are Saying
Hilgenstock: "U.S. sanctions and pressure on the Russian MIC have worked, and this is the exact wrong time to take the foot off the gas without any good reason to do so."
Shkurenko: "There is absolutely no self-interest from the US side in lifting sanctions on Russian military."
What Happens Next
The debate on whether the U.S. will ease sanctions on Russia will continue, but in the short term, talks between American and Russian officials are scheduled to take place in Saudi Arabia on Sunday in the wake of the Trump-Putin phone call.
Easing sanctions are not touted as being part of the negotiations, which are likely to focus on an energy attack pause and talks of a possible maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea.
Apparently, the war in Ukraine is still going on, and the Russians are still hanging in there. Even with the support of some American right-wing crackpots, who are calling the wretched Russian army the strongest in the world, Putin's horde of dumb and drunk Ivans just can't defeat a Third World country like Ukraine. This is why it's crucial for Putin to hammer out a peace plan with Trump as soon as possible before the Ukrainians regroup and head for Moscow. And, rest assured, he will be bringing a batch of cheap Russian gemstones, a barrel of cheap Russian oil, and several cheap Russian prostitutes to the negotiating table in order to show Trump what modern Russia has to offer. For Putin knows that The Donald, like the Europeans, can't resist McDonald's and Slavic fanny.
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